Professional Education Content Director & Subject Matter Expert (SME) Biographies
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Foundations of Commodities - March 20 – 21, 2017
In the Spring 2017 Professional Education offering, attendees gain a high level of understanding of the commodities industry from physical aspects (supply chain, fundamentals, asset monetization) to the financial (market structure, spreads, futures and derivatives). Risk management and regulation compliance are covered at a high level. The goal of this course is to educate professionals on the foundational concepts of commodities in the physical and financial arenas including key terms and concepts, underlying principles, market structure, futures and derivatives, risk management, and regulation. This course provides an affordable and accelerated curriculum for new hires in commodity-related businesses.
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Commodity Data Analysis - November 9 – 11, 2016
Guided by veteran industry practitioners, and utilizing one of the most user-friendly statistics packages on the market, students gain a core practical competency in econometrics and price modeling for the commodity markets. Students become familiar with not only the dominant methods for modeling forward curve dynamics, but also advanced methods employed by the most sophisticated market participants.
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Introduction
The commodities sector (oil, minerals/metals and energy) are a critical sector of the economy. However, they are generally underserved in terms of knowledge and skill enhancement opportunities. The J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities is uniquely positioned to fill this gap through its offer of 1-3 days courses on commodities with CE credits.
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Introduction to Global Commodity Issues (Editor’s Choice)
Summarized by Hilary Till, Contributing Editor, Global Commodities Applied Research Digest
The J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities also produces the Global Commodity Issues (GCI) [Editor’s Choice] e-Journal, which is edited by Professor Marcelle Arak of the University of Colorado Denver Business School. The GCI [Editor’s Choice] distributes working papers and abstracts of accepted papers in commodities, including agricultural, minerals/mining, and energy-related commodities worldwide.
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Interview with Professor Emeritus Margaret Slade, Vancouver School of Economics at the University of British Columbia; and Co-Chair, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities’ Research Council
Interview by Hilary Till, Contributing Editor, Global Commodities Applied Research Digest
In the Fall issue of the GCARD, we interview Dr. Margaret E. Slade, Ph.D., Co-Chair of the J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities’ (JPMCC’s) Research Council. In this interview, Dr. Slade discusses her motivation for becoming the Co-Chair of the Research Council and notes that there are no other academic centers like it. She also provides highlights of the 2015 Research Council meetings and details her goals for the Council. In addition, Dr. Slade discusses how she became involved in the commodity markets. She then notes key findings of her recently published work. Lastly, Dr. Slade also provides feedback on the GCARD, regarding the types of topics that should be covered, given its practitioner focus.
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Swing Oil Production and the Role of Credit
By Hilary Till, Contributing Editor, and Jan-Hein Jesse, Editorial Advisory Board Member, GCARD
The article begins with the classic definition of a swing producer and notes that North American tight oil (shale) producers would not normally fit this strict definition. The paper then argues that advances in well-production estimation techniques naturally led to an explosion of creative financing solutions for investing in shale. As a result, the appetite of credit markets for taking on shale-production risk became a key driver for the outlook for North American oil production. Next the article proposes that we might be able to refer to shale producers as swing producers as long as we loosen the definition of swing producer to be one in which there are fairly uniform production decisions that take place over up to a 12-month timeframe. The paper then notes that at some point, geological constraints (much more than the credit cycle) could come back into play and the baton would thereby pass back to the Middle East Gulf oil producers as the undisputed swing producers. Lastly, the paper returns to a shorter-term perspective, describing how the capital markets will likely be much more cautious in investing in shale oil production, even with a continuation in the recovery of the price of oil.
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The Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil: The Relative Importance of Fracking, China, and Geopolitics
Summarized by Hilary Till, Contributing Editor, Global Commodities Applied Research Digest
At the JPMCC’s December 2015 Research Council meeting, Professor James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, discussed why it turned out that oil priced at $100 did not hold, starting in 2014. Dr. Bluford Putnam of the CME Group and Professor Yosef Bonaparte of the University of Colorado Denver discussed Professor Hamilton’s research from both practitioner and academic perspectives, respectively. This digest article summarizes Professor Hamilton’s panel session.
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Case Study on Olam International
Summarized by Hilary Till, Contributing Editor, Global Commodities Applied Research Digest
At the JPMCC’s December 2015 Research Council meeting, Professor Forest Reinhardt of Harvard Business School (HBS) led a discussion on an HBS case study on Olam International, which Professor Reinhardt had co-authored. This digest article summarizes Professor Reinhardt’s case study lecture.
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China: Credit, Collateral, and Commodity Prices
By Shaun K. Roache, Ph.D., Temasek International and Marina Rousset, International Monetary Fund
As summarized by Dr. Keith Black, Ph.D., CFA, CAIA, Managing Director, Curriculum & Exams, CAIA Association
Investors and suppliers have long sought to understand and predict commodity prices using supply and demand analyses. Historically, commodity demand was measured by the quantity of commodities consumed through food or industrial uses. After the Chinese Property Law was enacted in October 2007, an increasing amount of industrial metals have been placed into storage and used as collateral for loans. Including these warehouse stocks in demand estimates, especially in copper, seem to overestimate the demand for industrial metals in the Chinese market. Investors and suppliers of industrial metals should adjust their supply and demand models to account for the risk of the unwinding of these inventories.
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